# BPCPPDYSOE21 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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# SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

## SOE 4: Data Analytics for Complex Dynamical Systems (joint SOE/DY Focus Session) (joint session SOE/DY)

### SOE 4.4: Vortrag

### Dienstag, 23. März 2021, 12:00–12:20, SOEa

**Tipping and transition paths in high-dimensional agent-based models** — •Luzie Helfmann^{1,2,3}, Peter Koltai^{1}, Jobst Heitzig^{3}, and Christof Schütte^{2,1} — ^{1}Freie Universität Berlin — ^{2}Zuse Institute Berlin — ^{3}Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Agent-based models are a popular choice for modeling complex social systems. Here, we are concerned with studying noise-induced tipping between relevant subsets of the agent state space, e.g., in order to understand drastic opinion changes in a population of agents. Due to the large number of interacting individuals, agent-based models are usually very high-dimensional. We therefore apply Diffusion Maps, a non-linear dimension reduction, to reveal the intrinsic low-dimensional structure of the model dynamics. We will characterize the tipping behavior by means of Transition Path Theory, a theory for gaining statistical understanding of the tipping paths (e.g., their density, flux, rate). We will illustrate our approach on two examples, both exhibiting a multitude of tipping pathways.