Dresden 2026 – wissenschaftliches Programm

Bereiche | Tage | Auswahl | Suche | Aktualisierungen | Downloads | Hilfe

BP: Fachverband Biologische Physik

BP 8: Systems and Networks Biophysics

BP 8.1: Vortrag

Montag, 9. März 2026, 16:45–17:00, BAR/0106

Origins of the Fittest: Clonal interference in the World Aviation Network — •Adrian Zachariae, Pascal Klamser, and Dirk Brockmann — Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Deutschland

Clonal interference, the competition between strains carrying different beneficial mutations, plays a crucial role in shaping evolutionary outcomes in asexual populations. Since the spread of new mutations is critical for CI, it is strongly influenced by the structure of the population. For example, long-range connections can rapidly distribute new mutations, reducing CI. We investigate how this phenomenon unfolds in the the World Aviation Network, which shapes the population structure of microorganisms that use humans as hosts, including pathogens. We developed a novel analytical framework that models the succession of adaptive mutations as a Markov Renewal Process. The process is built by leveraging epidemic modeling methods to model mutation spread in the network. Or approach reveals how the interplay between mutation rate and network topology gives rise to distinct evolutionary regimes: At low mutation rates, strains originating from globally central nodes have higher fixation probabilities, while at higher mutation rates, meso-scale and local properties become more important. Applied to the WAN, affluent, western regions are most likely origins of high-fitness lineages in the low-rate regime, shifting to more populous nations in Asia at high rates. The framework provides valuable insights how spatial structure shapes evolutionary outcome, with particular relevance for pandemic preparedness.

Keywords: Evolution; Clonal Interference; Transportation Networks; Spreading Dynamics; Network Geometry