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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 15: Focus Session: Large Deviations and Rare Events II

DY 15.11: Vortrag

Montag, 9. März 2026, 18:00–18:15, ZEU/0114

On the Reconstruction and Predictability of Ocean Rogue Waves — Christian Behnken, Finn Köhne, Metthias Wächter, and •Joachim Peinke — Institute of Physics, University Oldenburg, Oldenburg

We present a data-driven algorithm which allows to reconstruct rogue wave events from surface elevation measurements of ocean gravity waves. In particular we extract from the data stochastic equations for joint multipoint statistics [1]. Our procedure is applied to measurements from the Sea of Japan and the German North Sea over several days. The estimated stochastic equations allow to generate large ensembles of realistic wave time series to investigate the predictability of rogue waves. Furthermore we use the large deviation algorithm “Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Sampling” [2] to predict up to now unkown extreme wave events. While the North Sea equations do not lead to Rogue Waves, we do find those for the Sea of Japan. Averaging over several similar rogue waves, we obtain well-known rogue wave patterns like the “three sisters”, proposed by from nonlinear-wave equations. i.e. nonlinear Schrödinger equation [3].

[1] Hadjihoseini, A.; et al: EPL (Europhysics Letters) 120 (2017), Nr. 3, 30008

[2] Lestang, T.; et.al Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment 2018 (2018), Nr. 4, S. 043213

[3] Akhmediev, N.; et al: Physics Letters A 373 (2009), Nr. 6, S. 675–678

Keywords: Rogue Waves; large deviation; stochastic modelling