Dresden 2026 – scientific programme

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 15: Focus Session: Large Deviations and Rare Events II

Monday, March 9, 2026, 15:00–18:30, ZEU/0114

The modeling and understanding of large deviations and rare events is of crucial importance in a wide range of real-world applications, including climate science, actuarial statistics (insurance statistics), natural disaster management, or the description of financial markets. At the same time, such effects are fundamental for the understanding of many systems in condensed-matter physics. In first-order phase transitions, for instance, the coexisting phases are connected by transition states involving droplet excitations whose probability is suppressed by dozens or hundreds of orders of magnitude as compared to the pure-phase peaks. Likewise, for many disordered systems the behavior of typical cases is incompatible with that of the average sample as the problem is described by very broad, heavy-tailed distributions, where averages are dominated by rare events. For many models, like the Kadar-Parisi-Zhang equation or random-graph properties, there has been considerable analytical progress in the last decade. Likewise, new or improved numerical techniques have been proposed that now allow for the treatment of previously inaccessible problems or regimes. This focus session is devoted to an update on the state of the art in this rapidly evolving area.

Organized by Alexander K. Hartmann (Oldenburg) and Martin Weigel (Chemnitz)

	15:00	DY 15.1	Invited Talk: Monte Carlo Simulation Methods for Rare-Event Sampling — •Wolfhard Janke
	15:30	DY 15.2	Sampling rare events with neural networks — Moritz Riedel, Johannes Zierenberg, and •Martin Weigel
	15:45	DY 15.3	Large deviation simulation of the coupling time of an Ising ferromagnet — •Mathis Groenhagen, Peter Werner, and Alexander K. Hartmann
	16:00	DY 15.4	Large deviations in response functions of the two-dimensional bond-diluted Ising model — •Lambert Münster, Alexander K. Hartmann, and Martin Weigel
	16:15	DY 15.5	Universality of the order-parameter large-deviation function for the critical 2D Ising and Blume-Capel models — Nikolaos G. Fytas, Víctor Martín-Mayor, Attilio L. Stella, Gianluca Teza, Alexandros Vasilopoulos, and •David Yllanes
	16:30	DY 15.6	Ising Model under Stochastic Resetting — •Shashank Kallappara, Parbati Saha, Varsha Banerjee, and Martin Weigel
	16:45		15 min. break
	17:00	DY 15.7	Classical nucleation theory for active non-conserved scalar field theories — •Michalis Chatzittofi, Noah Ziethen, Cesare Nardini, and Michael Cates
	17:15	DY 15.8	Precise large deviations in statistical field theories with weak noise — •Timo Schorlepp, Tobias Grafke, Rainer Grauer, Georg Stadler, and Shanyin Tong
	17:30	DY 15.9	Probability graphons and large deviations for random weighted graphs — •Giulio Zucal
	17:45	DY 15.10	Extreme Value Analysis for Finite, Multivariate and Correlated Systems with Finance as an Example — •Benjamin Köhler, Anton J Heckens, and Thomas Guhr
	18:00	DY 15.11	On the Reconstruction and Predictability of Ocean Rogue Waves — Christian Behnken, Finn Köhne, Metthias Wächter, and •Joachim Peinke
	18:15	DY 15.12	Forecasting Extreme Events in Atmospheric Turbulence — •Finn Köhne and Joachim Peinke