Dresden 2026 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 48: Nonlinear Dynamics and Time-Delay Systems

DY 48.2: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 12. März 2026, 09:45–10:00, ZEU/0118

Beyond the Balance: A Minimal Model Unifying Regime Shifts, Long Transients, and Critical Transitions — •Misha Chai and Holger Kantz — Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Nöthnitzer Str. 38, D 01187, Germany

By the late 20th century, ecologists recognized that classical equilibrium views --- nature is deterministic and always converges to a single, stable state --- often fail to capture real-world dynamics. A nonequilibrium perspective emerged: ecological systems are frequently dominated by long transients that can persist over a super-long periods of time, with recurrent cyclic and chaotic behavior, until a sudden regime shifts changes the dynamics and transitions the system to an unpredictable new state.

However, models that integrate these key features --- alternative stable states, stochastic drivers, long transients, and critical transitions --- while also quantifying stability via resilience, remain rare.

We propose a minimal model that encapsulates these key properties of nonequilibrium ecology, while remaining amenable to theoretical analysis.

Keywords: Regime shifts; Long Transients; Resilience; Ecosystems; Alternative stable states