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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 10: Networks, From Topology to Dynamics II (joint session SOE/DY)

SOE 10.2: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 11. März 2026, 15:15–15:30, GÖR/0226

Forecasting emergency department visits in the reference hospital of the Balearic Islands: the role of tourist and weather data — •Paride Crisafulli, Tobias Galla, Raul Toral, and Claudio Mirasso — IFISC (UIB-CSIC), Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Accurate forecasting of patient arrivals at emergency departments (EDs) is vital for efficient resource allocation and high-quality patient care. Despite its significance and extensive prior research, certain conditions can significantly impact the accuracy of these estimates. This study investigates the relevance of tourism and weather data alongside traditional calendar and demographic variables in forecasting ED visits in the reference hospital in Palma de Mallorca, a city with significant seasonal population fluctuations due to tourism. Utilizing a machine learning approach, we develop a model that predicts ED visits based solely on exogenous variables. We test three different machine learning algorithms (random forests, support vector machines, and feed-forward neural networks) with four different input combinations, comparing their mean average percentage errors (MAPEs) and prediction horizons.

Keywords: Emergency department; Machine learning; Weather forecasts; Tourism