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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 6: Mobility, Traffic Dynamics, Urban and Regional Systems
SOE 6.7: Talk
Tuesday, March 10, 2026, 12:30–12:45, GÖR/0226
Pulses, waves, and chaos in migration dynamics — Niraj Kushwaha1, Woi Sok Oh2, and •Edward Lee1 — 1Complexity Science Hub, Vienna, Austria — 2University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada
Decisions to migrate depend on others' decisions. Dependence can produce both stable long-term trends and sudden transitions, which appear in data but could be the result of either exogenous drivers or of endogenous dynamics. We propose a simple migration model that accounts for social influence and individual heterogeneity in decisions to migrate. The minimal model displays hysteresis, waves, and chaotic-like regimes. This occurs in special locations of parameter space, suggesting that migration response to external conditions could be highly dependent on whether the system is poised near or far away from dynamical instability. Conditioning on this distance would be key to determining "causal drivers" of migration. In the context of displacement, for example, this would be relevant for oft-considered correlates like armed conflict and onset of natural disasters. We show how the model aligns with features of migration statistics including from internal displacement and maritime crossings.
Keywords: displacement; migration; nonlinear dynamics; hysteresis