Erlangen 2026 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 2: Nuclear Fuel Cycle

AGA 2.1: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 18. März 2026, 17:00–17:30, KH 00.016

Nuclear archaeology with reprocessing waste: a Bayesian framework for reconstructing reactor operating parameters — •Benjamin Jung — Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF), Frankfurt, Germany — Rheinisch-Westfälische Technische Hochschule (RWTH) Aachen, Aachen, Germany

In order to verify declarations of fissile material for nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regimes, nuclear archaeology seeks to reconstruct a state's history of fissile material production by analysing the isotopic composition of samples of material collected at its nuclear facilities. The novel Bayesian Reprocessing Waste Analysis Method (BRAM) aims to use waste from nuclear reprocessing activities as evidence for nuclear archaeology. Through simulation-based case studies, I demonstrate that this Bayesian framework can identify the type of source reactor and reconstruct important parameters such as burnup, cooling time, initial enrichment and power density. Using experimental data from the SFCOMPO database, I have successfully taken the first steps towards validating the framework by correctly reconstructing the operating parameters of a Magnox-type reactor and a pressurised water reactor (PWR). These results demonstrate the framework's potential and encourage further research and development in preparation for real-world applications.

Keywords: Nuclear archaeology; Bayesian inference; Nuclear disarmament verification