Erlangen 2026 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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EP: Fachverband Extraterrestrische Physik
EP 9: Sun and Heliosphere III
EP 9.2: Vortrag
Donnerstag, 19. März 2026, 14:00–14:15, KH 01.019
The accuracy of REleASE forecasts for different heliographic longitude distances — H. Dröge1, A. Posner2, •B. Heber1, M. Malandraki3, M. Karavolos3, and L. Tsipis3 — 1Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (CAU), Kiel, Germany — 2NASA — 3National Observatory of Athens, Greece
Forecast systems and predictions of hazardous Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are needed to support space missions. Especially in view of future plans for human exploration of Mars, a radiation protection strategy needs to be implemented with the goal of reliably providing advance warning of sudden radiation hazards. REleASE utilises the close correlation between near-relativistic electrons and the slower protons to provide, on average, one hour of advance warning of particle events observed close to earth. Originally, REleASE used real-time data from SOHO/EPHIN and later ACE/EPAM (HESPERIA/REleASE) to issue short-term warnings before a significant flux increase of 20−50 MeV protons. The method was adapted to work with the HET and SEPT instruments onboard STEREO-A, and an operational STEREO/REleASE system was created. With two REleASE systems now operational, we have the possibility to directly compare forecasts from different points in the heliosphere. Human explorers following Hohmann trajectories to and from Mars will be up to 22∘ away in longitudinal magnetic connection distance from the alert system. We used the 2022 to 2025 passage of STEREO-A by Earth to test whether remote REleASE forecasts can provide timely and sufficiently accurate information for the location of another spacecraft.
Keywords: SEP event; measurements; Measurements; forecast