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GR: Fachverband Gravitation, Relativistische Astrophysik und Kosmologie

GR 8: Gravitational Waves II

GR 8.4: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 18. März 2026, 14:30–14:45, KH 01.016

Predicting gravitational wave observations for next-generation detectors — •Per-Ingmar Laurens Schrake^{1, 2} and Frank Ohme^{1, 2} — ¹Max Planck Institute for Gravitational Physics — ²Leibniz University Hannover

The detection of gravitational waves from merging compact binaries has revolutionized astronomy since the first observation in 2015, with the current GWTC-4.0 catalog containing 161 events. A new generation of significantly more sensitive detectors, such as the Einstein Telescope (ET) and Cosmic Explorer (CE), is already being planned. But what will these future detectors actually be able to measure in detail? This talk examines what predictions about future gravitational wave observations can be derived from the currently available population statistics. To answer this, a synthetic merger population is generated by randomly sampling from the parameter distributions reported in GWTC-4.0. Subsequently, the corresponding gravitational waveforms are generated with state-of-the-art models and evaluated depending on the sensitivity curve of next-generation detectors. The statistical distribution of the resulting signal-to-noise ratio is analyzed to estimate the anticipated occurrence of very strong signals. The framework further enables systematic comparisons among different population models and confusion noise estimates. Under realistic assumptions regarding population properties and detector sensitivities, it becomes apparent that ET enables the near-complete detection of merging compact binaries within the local universe.

Keywords: Next-generation Gravitational-wave Detectors; Einstein Telescope; Binary Merger Population; Compact Binary Coalescences