Regensburg 2002 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
AKSOE 16: Makro-ökonomische Modelle und Wirtschaftswachstum I
AKSOE 16.1: Vortrag
Mittwoch, 13. März 2002, 14:00–14:30, H8
Production Factors and Economic Growth — •R. Kümmel1, D. Lindenberger2, W. Eichhorn3, R. U. Ayres4, and B. Warr4 — 1Inst. f. Theoret. Physik, Univ. Würzburg — 2Energiewirtsch. Inst. Univ. Köln — 3Inst. f. Wirtschaftsth. u. OR, Univ. Karlsruhe — 4CMER, INSEAD, Fontainebleau
Recently, natural scientists and economists have reexamined the
role of energy in economic growth.
Econometric analysis of growth in the USA, Japan, and
Germany between 1960 and 1996 shows that energy drives about
50% of economic growth, whereas capital and labor are responsible
for the other half (1). Considering the entire period 1900 to 1998,
a recent study indicates that energy (exergy) converted to physical
work accounts for 60% of US economic growth prior to the 1970’s and
almost 70% since then (2). Mainstream economics, on the other hand,
gives energy only a weight of 5% according to energy’s share in the
total cost of the production factors capital, labor and energy.
Consequences of these findings are discussed.
(1) Ch. Hall, D. Lindenberger, R. Kümmel, T. Kroeger, and W.
Eichhorn, “The need to reintegrate the natural sciences with
economics” BioScience 51, 663-673 (2001).
(2) R. U. Ayres and B. Warr, “Accounting for growth: the role
of physical work”, submitted (2001). R. U. Ayres, L. W. Ayres and
B. Warr, “Exergy, Power and Work in the US economy, 1900 - 1998”
submitted (2001).