Dresden 2003 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 3: Postersitzung

AKSOE 3.13: Poster

Montag, 24. März 2003, 15:45–17:15, P1

Probabilistic Traffic Flow Breakdown In Stochastic Car Following Models — •Kai Nagel and Dominic Jost — Institute for Computational Science, ETH Zurich

There is discussion if traffic displays multiple phases (e.g. laminar, jammed, synchronized) or not. This paper presents computational evidence that a stochastic car following model, by changing one of its parameters, can be moved from having two phases (laminar and jammed) to having only one phase. Models with two phases show three states: two being homogeneous states corresponding to each phase, and a third state which consists of a mix between the two phases (phase coexistence).
Although the gas-liquid analogy to traffic models has been widely discussed, no traffic-related model ever displayed a completely understood stochastic version of that transition. Having a stochastic model is important to understand the potentially probabilistic nature of the transition. Most importantly, if indeed 2-phase models describe certain aspects correctly, then this leads to predictions for breakdown probabilities. Alternatively, if 1-phase models describe these aspects better, then there is no breakdown. Interestingly, such 1-phase models can still allow for jam formation on small scales, which may give the impression of having a 2-phase dynamics.