Dresden 2003 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 3: Postersitzung

AKSOE 3.7: Poster

Montag, 24. März 2003, 15:45–17:15, P1

Sustainable Social Economic Evolution of the Globalized Society, Part2: Simulation Results — •Thilo Frederking and Ernst Welfonder — Allmandring 5b, 70550 Stuttgart

This paper deals with the quantitive application of the developed socio-economic model introduced in /1/. Therein the interaction of national/supranational areas like Germany, Rest-EC, Rest-OECD, threshold and developing countries is considered. In the first step the main input and output variables of the part models have been balanced by time series taken from the corresponding statistical yearbooks. For further investigation all time series determined from 1980 to 2000 have been adapted by corresponding regression curves using the least square method. After such preparation of the statistical data the part model parameters have been identified. Then the part models have been coupled and the following kinds of simulations have been carried out: a) simulations to compare the modeled socio-economic behaviour with the reality b) forecast simulations up to the year 2030 c) sensitivity simulations for the evaluation of the main model parameters and external influences d) aimed simulations for improving the socio-econimic behaviour by foreseeing realistic countermeasures. In the paper results of each kind of simulation are presented. /1/ Welfonder, E. and T. Frederking: Sustainable Social Economic Evolution of the Globalized Society Part 1: Structure and Functionality of the whole Dynamic Model. Jahrestagung des Arbeitskreises Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme (AK-SOE), 24.-28.03.2003, Dresden.