Berlin 2008 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKSOE: Arbeitskreis Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 16: Financial Markets and Risk Management III

AKSOE 16.5: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 28. Februar 2008, 15:30–16:00, EW 203

Exponential distributions with "fat tails" for sales of goods: correspondence to individual income distributions — •Romanovsky Michael — A.M.Prokhorov General Physics Institute of RAS. Russia, 119991 Moscow, Vavilov str. 38

Distribution of new car prices in the USA and UK in 2004 is investigated. In the USA, sales of cars lower than 100000 USD are distributed exponentially with the normalization ~ 21000 USD. The distribution of car sales with prices larger than 100000 USD is the Pareto distribution. In the UK in 2004, sales of cars with prices lower than 50000 pounds are exponential also with the normalization ~ 10000 pounds.

The distributions of individual incomes in the USA, UK, and Australia have the same form: an exponential "body" and Pareto "tail" [1]. The price distribution can be used for the independent evaluation of individual income distribution.

Distributions of new cars sales prices were determined for Russia in 2003-2006. They have the same form as in the USA: an exponential body (before 50000 USD) with the normalization 9000 USD in 2004, and the Pareto tail with the exponent ~ 2 after 50000 USD. The mean estimated individual income in Russia in 2004 was 12000 USD. This income is more than two times larger than the official salary in Russia during this period.

The method can be used for income determination (or reliable estimation) in economics with the partially transparent tax systems.

[1] V.M.Yakovenko et.al. Physica A. 2001. V.299. P.213; Physica A. 2006. V.370. P.54.