Regensburg 2013 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 24: Group Dynamics
SOE 24.1: Vortrag
Donnerstag, 14. März 2013, 15:45–16:00, H37
A statistical view on team handball results: home advantage, team fitness and prediction of match outcomes — •Jens Smiatek1 and Andreas Heuer2 — 1Institut für Computerphysik, Universität Stuttgart, Germany — 2Institut für Physikalische Chemie, WWU Münster, Germany
We analyze the results of the German Team Handball Bundesliga for ten seasons in a model-free statistical time series approach. We will show that the home advantage is nearly negligible compared to the total sum of goals. Specific interest has been spent on the time evolution of the team fitness expressed in terms of the goal difference. In contrast to soccer, our results indicate a decay of the team fitness values over a season while the long time correlation behavior over years is nearly comparable. We are able to explain the dominance of a few teams by large values for the total number of goals in a match. A method for the prediction of match winners is presented in good accuracy with the real results. We further analyze the properties of promoted teams and indicate drastic level changes between the Bundesliga and the second league. Our findings reflect in good agreement recent discussions on modern successful attack strategies.