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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 14: Social Systems, Opinion and Group Formation

SOE 14.2: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 19. März 2020, 11:45–12:00, GÖR 226

A pair-based approach for modelling epidemics on networks — Rory Humphries, Kieran Mulchrone, and •Philipp Hövel — School of Mathematical Sciences, University College Cork, Ireland

We present a pair-based description to study the spreading of epidemics. For the contagion process, we consider a class of SIS, SIR and SIRS models, which are realized as a temporal network. The shift in perspective from individual-based to pair-based quantities enables exact modelling of Markovian epidemic processes on temporal tree graphs. On arbitrary graphs, the proposed pair-based model provides a substantial increase in accuracy at a low computational and conceptual cost compared to the individual-based model. Using the pair-based model, we derive useful analytical expressions, such as the epidemic threshold for testing the global susceptibility to epidemic outbreaks. This allows to determine the likelihood of paths that a disease may take and to identify areas that will be most affected.