Dresden 2020 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SYCE 1.5: Hauptvortrag
Mittwoch, 18. März 2020, 11:45–12:15, HSZ 02
The transition of the electricity system to 100% renewable energy: agent-based modeling of investment decisions under climate policies — •Kristian Lindgren — Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
A future energy system that to a large extent depends on variable renewable energy sources, like wind and solar power, involves new challenges for securing a reliable supply of electricity. The economic basis for such an electricity system differs significantly from the one we have today, and one can expect that prices will be more volatile and risk for shortages in supply increases.
We explore the transition towards a 100% renewable electricity system, driven by climate policies. These policies affect the investment decisions taken by companies, and we consider these to constitute the driving mechanism for the transition. This results in an agent-based (or mechanistic) model, in which companies are agents with possibly different bases for decisions as well as limitations in knowledge about the future. This is in contrast with the standard optimisation approach that identifies the cost-optimal allocation of investments generally assuming perfectly informed agents.
Several characteristics of the transition, like electricity prices, volatility, and roles of different technologies are discussed, and the dependence on different agent features is illustrated.