SMuK 2023 – scientific programme
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P: Fachverband Plasmaphysik
P 2: Magnetic Confinement I/HEPP I
P 2.3: Talk
Monday, March 20, 2023, 11:55–12:20, CHE/0091
Introduction and Uncertainty Quantification of Kinetic Models in the Integrated Data Analysis Framework — •Michael Bergmann1, Kislaya Ravi2, Rainer Fischer1, Clemente Angioni1, Klara Höfler1, Pedro Molina Cabrera3, Tobias Görler1, Roberto Bilato1, and Frank Jenko1, 2 — 1Max- Planck-Institute für Plasmaphysik — 2TUM (CIT) — 3École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland
Using a combined analysis of multiple diagnostics as well as Bayesian probability theory the Integrated Data Analysis (IDA) infers elec- tron density and temperature profiles of ASDEX Upgrade plasmas and is the standard against which simulations are validated. As the diag- nostics do not cover the entire plasma or may be unavailable IDA con- siders a variety of non-physics-based priors. The resulting profiles may not be in accordance with theories best expectations e.g. may have gra- dients which drive too high turbulent transport. Using the transport solvers ASTRA coupled with the quasi-linear turbulence code TGLF we have created a loop in which simulated profiles are fed back into IDA as another prior thus providing constraints about the physically reasonable parameter space. For now the uncertainty of the simulation is given by the user, however we will discuss several ideas for a more complete uncertainty quantification such as input error propagation and comparison to the high-fidelity turbulence solver GENE.