Dresden 2020 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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CPP 42.8: Topical Talk
Dienstag, 17. März 2020, 12:00–12:30, GÖR 226
Limits to predictability of complex systems dynamics — Jonathan Brisch and •Holger Kantz — Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany
Motivated by the challenges of weather forecasting and the well known fact that atmospheric dynamics takes place on many temporal and spatial scales, we discuss the possibility of scale dependent error growth and its consequences for predictions. In case that the growth rate of small errors depends on the error magnitude as an inverse power law, we can explain why forecasts of macroscopic observables can be successful on time scales which are orders of magnitude longer than the (estimated) Lyapunov time, and at the same time we find a strictly finite prediction horizon even for arbitrary accuracy of the initial condition. We propose a hierarchical model class, which is able to generate such an error growth behaviour, and finally we re-analyze published data of error-growth in a numerical weather forecast system to present evidence that the error growth rate there is indeed consistent with a power law with diverging growth rate for infinitesimal errors. It is plausible that the same mechanism is active in other complex phenomena which live on a variety of spatial and temporal scales.